The AFL season is heating up, and with six rounds left, the race for the top six is more intense than ever. As Geelong tumbles down the table, a surprising new side is tipped to earn a wildcard spot. This is The Run Home, where we analyze every club's remaining fixture and predict how the rest of the year will play out. Let's dive into the key talking points and projected finals bracket.
Key Talking Points
Fremantle's Dominance: Fremantle is mathematically locked into the finals and is almost certain to finish in the top six. They are two games clear of Sydney and have a strong percentage gap, making them near-certainties for minor premiership and a home qualifying final.
Sydney's Slipping: Sydney remains two games clear of third place, but their recent performance has been disappointing. They need to win at least one of their next two games to secure second place. If they can get through the Crows and Giants unscathed, they should be okay, but the door could open for Hawthorn or Brisbane if they struggle.
Hawthorn's Strong Grip: Hawthorn has a strong grip on a top-four finish with four games left against weaker teams. They need to win those five games to earn the double chance, unless two of Brisbane, Adelaide, and Melbourne finish on a 6-0 run.
Brisbane's Path to the Top Four: Brisbane has a clear path to the top four, with a weaker remaining draw compared to Adelaide and Melbourne. They are expected to finish ahead of the Crows and Demons, but percentage could play a role.
Adelaide's Slipping: Adelaide's recent losses have given them some breathing room in the top-six race. They need to get the job done in tricky home games against Collingwood and GWS, but four wins should be enough to avoid the wildcard.
Melbourne's Uncertain Future: Melbourne is two wins clear inside the top six, but their game against Geelong in two weeks' time will decide their fate. A win could secure them a spot, but a loss could put them in a wildcard position.
Geelong's Sliding: Geelong's recent losses have hurt their chances of making the top four. They need to win their last six games and hope for other results to go their way, but their season has fallen apart.
Western Bulldogs' Survival: The Bulldogs need to keep getting the job done against lesser sides to secure a wildcard spot. They have a clear path to 12 wins, which should be enough for the finals.
Collingwood's Unlikely Scenario: Collingwood is fighting for a wildcard spot, with an unlikely scenario where they upset two or three of the remaining contenders. They need to win their last five games and hope for other results to go their way.
GWS's Rise: GWS has had a ridiculous season, with five wins over the top half of the ladder. They are on track for a wildcard spot, with four very winnable games left. If they hadn’t lost to St Kilda twice, they’d be in a better spot.
Carlton's Chance: Carlton has a reasonable path to 12 wins if they beat Collingwood and St Kilda. They need to beat the Suns and Bulldogs too, and their percentage could play a role in their chances.
North Melbourne's Slipping: North Melbourne's wildcard dream is basically over, having dropped two of their most winnable remaining games. They need four wins from their last six to have any real chance.
Gold Coast's Struggles: Gold Coast feels a lot like Geelong, with their losses being individually explainable but collectively hurting their chances. They are set to finish way lower on the ladder than they should.
Projected Finals Bracket
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBD at Adelaide Oval
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Geelong vs GWS Giants at the MCG
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBD at the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.
Projected Final Ladder
Fremantle (19.35 projected wins)
Sydney Swans (17.4)
Hawthorn (16.05)
Brisbane Lions (15.2)
Adelaide Crows (14.65)
Melbourne (14.35)
Geelong (13.45)
Western Bulldogs (12.85)
Collingwood (11.95)
GWS Giants (11.5)
St Kilda (11.35)
Carlton (10.85)
North Melbourne (9.65)
Gold Coast Suns (9.6)
Port Adelaide (8.3)
West Coast Eagles (5.55)
Richmond (3)
Essendon (1.95)
In conclusion, the AFL season is heating up, and the race for the top six is more intense than ever. With six rounds left, the wildcard spots are up for grabs, and the finals bracket is set to be exciting. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the season unfolds!
