Tasmania's population shift: a tale of two trends
In recent years, Tasmania has experienced a notable shift in its population dynamics, and the implications are far-reaching. While the state once boasted impressive growth rates, attracting almost 50,000 new residents between 2016 and 2021, the momentum has since tapered off. Today, Tasmania's annual growth rate is a mere 0.3%, the lowest in the country. Demographer Lisa Denny paints a stark picture, predicting that by 2028-29, Tasmania could be the first Australian state to face a natural decline, where deaths outnumber births.
The Push and Pull Factors
What's driving this population shift? It's a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, young Tasmanians like Ellie Warmbrunn are drawn to the sunshine and career opportunities of Queensland's Gold Coast. She embodies the 'push' factor, seeking a lifestyle and career prospects that Tasmania, at present, cannot offer. On the other hand, Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner represent the 'pull' factor, choosing Tasmania for its affordability and a sense of community reminiscent of Melbourne in the 90s. Their story highlights the appeal of Tasmania's smaller cities and the opportunities they present.
The Impact on Daily Life
Despite the plateau in population growth since 2021, Tasmania's daily life shows no signs of a slump. Increased traffic congestion and growth in outer suburbs indicate a state in transition. While some areas, like Clarence and Brighton, are thriving, others, like Hobart and Glenorchy, are facing declines. This highlights the uneven nature of Tasmania's population shift and the challenges it presents for local governments.
Economic Implications
The economic consequences of Tasmania's population shift are significant. Slower growth translates to lower payroll tax, stamp duty, and consumer spending, impacting the state's revenue from GST. Independent economist Saul Eslake emphasizes that Tasmania has been 'pretty bad' at improving productivity, a key factor in economic growth. Treasurer Eric Abetz, however, remains optimistic, pointing to a 1.1% growth in gross state product per capita despite the recent low population growth.
Navigating an Ageing Population
Tasmania's population shift is also characterized by an ageing population, with a predicted median age of 48 by 2050, and 28% of the population over 65. This presents unique challenges, as evidenced by the current situation where three wards of patients are stranded in hospitals due to a lack of aged care facilities. It's a stark reminder of the strain an ageing population can place on healthcare systems and the need for proactive planning.
A Call for Action
So, what's the plan to attract more people to Tasmania? Mr Abetz believes that improved housing affordability could be a key drawcard, potentially boosting interstate migration. The construction of the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart is also seen as a potential magnet for young workers. However, demographer Lisa Denny cautions that Tasmania will face competition from other major construction projects, such as those for the Brisbane Olympic Games. Economist Saul Eslake emphasizes the need to improve basic government services, particularly education and health, to stem the outflow of younger people from Tasmania.
A Broader Perspective
Tasmania's population shift is a microcosm of broader trends in regional Australia. It highlights the challenges of retaining young talent, the appeal of regional lifestyles, and the economic and social implications of an ageing population. As Tasmania navigates these complexities, it serves as a case study for other regions facing similar demographic shifts. The question remains: Can Tasmania reverse its population trajectory and what lessons can be learned from its experience?
